EPISODE 122 – Social Security Pay Raise? The Gotchas You Need to Know

Social Security's 2026 Pay Raise: What You Gain—and What You Might Lose

As retirees gear up for a 2.8% Social Security increase in 2026, it’s tempting to view it as a long-overdue raise. But before you celebrate, it’s crucial to understand how much of that bump might get clawed back by taxes, rising Medicare premiums, and inflation.

In Episode 122 of The Last Paycheck Podcast, CFP® professionals Rob and Archie Hoxton pull back the curtain on how the Social Security COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) is actually calculated—and why it’s not as intuitive as most people think. Unlike standard year-over-year inflation comparisons, the COLA is based on third-quarter changes in a very specific inflation measure: the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers).

This year’s COLA is 2.8%, translating to:

  • $56 more per month for the average individual
  • $88 more per month for the average couple

But here’s the catch: Medicare premiums are also rising.

The base Medicare Part B premium is expected to jump from about $185 to $206/month. That means as much as half—or more—of your “raise” could go straight toward healthcare costs. For higher-income retirees, the IRMAA surcharge can make premiums even steeper.

Then there’s the issue of tax thresholds. Social Security benefits are subject to taxation once your income exceeds $25,000 (single) or $32,000 (married). But those thresholds haven’t budged in years. As your benefits rise, so does your chance of triggering the “tax torpedo”—where 50% to 85% of your benefit becomes taxable income.

And for high earners still in the workforce, the FICA wage cap is rising to $184,500 in 2026. That means you’ll pay more in payroll taxes—while still receiving the same capped benefit later in life.

Take Control of What You Can

Despite these complexities, there’s good news: With smart planning, you can reduce the impact of taxes, Medicare premiums, and inflation on your retirement income.

Re-evaluate your Social Security claiming strategy
Consider income shifting or Roth conversions
Review your Medicare premium brackets
Update your retirement projections using realistic inflation rates

Want help understanding how these changes affect you?

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